OP-ED: The Republican Failure on Abortion Politics
The overturning of Roe v. Wade will help Democrats in 2024, just as it did in 2022
The Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022 could end up costing Republicans mightily in 2024, just as it did in 2022. The decision, which handed the power to regulate abortion back to the states, ignited a firestorm of debate and activism across the country. Having failed to prepare for their own success, conservatives are scrambling to avoid appearing too extreme on the issue, even as red states roll back access to abortion, in some cases dramatically.
The 2022 midterm elections were a sobering wake-up call for Republicans. Faced with the fallout from the Supreme Court's decision, voters delivered a resounding rebuke to the party at the polls. Historical trends pointed to Republicans easily taking the House of Representatives with a 30 to 60 vote pickup, and maybe even winning a slight majority in the Senate. Instead, they picked up only nine seats in the House, barely securing a majority, and GOP Senate candidates like Mehmet Oz and Herschel Walker floundered. Since then, their slim House majority has been further eroded by the removal of George Santos and several retirements.
The backlash was palpable, with many attributing the poor performance to the party's stance on reproductive rights. For years, Republicans had clamored for the reversal of Roe v. Wade, viewing it as a cornerstone of their platform, and an effective fundraising tool. Yet, when their wish was granted, they found themselves ill-prepared to navigate the ensuing political fallout. A hard-line stance on abortion might help the right among its base and within primaries, but it quickly became a major liability in a general election as a majority of the country believes abortion should be legal in most situations.
Fast forward to 2024, and the issue of abortion continues to loom large on the national stage. Recent developments in states like Florida and Arizona have only served to reignite the debate. Florida's implementation of a 6-week abortion ban, with the provision for voters to overturn it via ballot referendum, has drawn sharp criticism from both sides of the aisle. Similarly, Arizona's decision to revert to an 1864 law effectively banning abortion has sparked outrage and legal challenges.
In the midst of this turmoil, former President Donald Trump has waded into the fray, proclaiming that abortion should be a state's rights issue, attempting to please everyone, and ultimately pleasing no one. His stance has further alienated both pro-choice and anti-choice advocates, leaving many disillusioned with his leadership on the issue. Trump's attempt to shift the responsibility to the states has only served to highlight the deep divisions among Republicans, some of whom want a national ban and some of whom realize they need to win power resoundingly first before they can change the laws with impunity.
Despite his attempts to appear moderate on the issue, there is a direct throughline between the actions of Donald Trump and the rolling back of abortion rights. Trump appointed three far-right Supreme Court Justices with the stated goal that they would ultimately overturn Roe, and all three voted to do so when given the opportunity. This sort of direct cause and effect is often hard to find in politics and should be used by Democrats to motivate left-leaning voters this fall.
Indeed, the data speaks volumes. A Pew Research Center poll conducted in 2022 found that a majority of Americans, 61%, support the legality of abortion in all or most cases. Conversely, only 37% believed it should be illegal in all or most cases. These numbers underscore the disconnect between Republican lawmakers and the broader electorate on this issue.
It's a bitter pill for Republicans to swallow, but perhaps it's a reckoning they brought upon themselves. For half a century, the party has made overturning Roe v. Wade a central tenet of its platform. Yet, when faced with the reality of achieving that goal, they were unprepared for the consequences. The fallout from the Supreme Court's decision has laid bare the deep divisions within the party and highlighted the need to codify abortion rights into law.
The overturning of Roe v. Wade has been devastating for women and girls across the country. Weeks after the ruling, a story emerged of a 10-year-old girl from Ohio who had to travel to neighboring Indiana to get the procedure, even though she was a victim of rape and it was clearly medically necessary. Even getting medical care for miscarriages and stillbirths has proven challenging, in some cases because doctors fear prosecution.
While great damage has been done by the overturning of Roe v. Wade, there is an opportunity for a silver lining to shine through. Republicans have made themselves look out-of-touch, unsympathetic, and unprepared on this issue. Democrats have some built-in advantages this election cycle, including running an incumbent presidential candidate who’s overseeing a relatively strong economy. But ultimately it could be this abortion issue that drives home the victory for them.
Let’s Not Make Roe an Issue This Election!
For 40 years, we heard Republicans say we have to vote for them to protect the unborn. This one issue has shifted countless Democrats to Republicans or to vote Republican. Now a lot of these people can finally look at the other issues and vote for the Democratic party. Please, lets not put Roe back on the table.
This election cycle, we should campaign for women’s rights such as making the pill and birth control legal and low cost nationwide along with IVF. Allow abortions for rape, incest, to protect the woman’s life and to protect her fertility health. But please lets not mention Roe except to say that it was overturned.
We should be respectful of people who are strongly against abortion and acknowledge this is an area where it’s very difficult to make a judgement call as to, at what stage of development and of what circumstances, if any, should the rights of a fetus to live, override the rights of the woman to not have the child.
Even though the Republicans dominated the Supreme Court with the passage of Roe and since, 17 to 7, Democrats have been called baby killers for 40 years. This has been a very powerful voting tool for Republicans. With Roe being overturned, millions of people now feel they can consider all issues and vote for the Democratic party.
Most people who want Roe completely restored are already voting for the Democratic party. We need to get people who want to vote for Democratic values but feel they can’t if they feel they would be complicit in killing babies as depicted on billboards. We need all voters. Please, let’s take smaller steps and not make Roe an issue this election cycle.
Thank you,
Doug